Jumping for Joy - Phoenix Leads Nation - Positively This Time

No amount of bad news can dim the facts that show #Phoenix is once again leading the nation - this time in a positive fashion.  Notices of Trustee's Sale - the leading indicators of #foreclosure in Arizona - are down to levels not seen since August of 2006.  The Notice of Trustees Sale is the first document filed by a lender when they intend to foreclose.  The property is then auctioned off after a 90 day waiting period, during which the owner of the property can remedy the situation if they choose.  This puts us back to a "normal" foreclosure rate of about 1000 foreclosures/month.


#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman 

Why Prices Won't Drop in Phoenix

Prices in Phoenix are not going to drop!  There, I said it.  Now, here's why.

This is so simple, I can't believe that nobody else is mentioning it.

Consider the past 7 years of the Phoenix market - 5 years had prices going down, and the past two years have seen a resurgence in prices, but they have not yet come back anywhere near where they were.  People are looking at the last two years and saying with "wisdom", that the prices went too high too fast, and we are looking at a "bubble" that may burst.

Not So!

The market now is *so* different than two years ago - It is totally "upside down" in that now 85% of the homes on the market are resales, not foreclosures.  There are hardly any short sales.

The people who are selling are people who have wanted to sell for a long time, but couldn't due to the mortgage they held.  The people selling now are happy to break even, or maybe take a few dollars out of a sale, but no so much that they can buy a new home with 20% down.  Their motivation is a "better" neighborhood, being closer to a job, #up-sizing or #down-sizing, but - and huge emphasis here - not to make a killing on selling their home!

These people cannot afford to market their homes for any less.  If they market for less, then they will not be able to make the move to where they want to be.  There is no "give" in their pricing.

They cannot change their prices.  Therefore, the prices in Phoenix will remain stable, and appreciation will continue, although slower than past years.


#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman 

US Home Builder Confidence Down

US home builder confidence has suffered its largest ever monthly drop between January and February 2014. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index plunged from 56 to 46. This is the first reading since May 2013 that has dropped below the crucial 50 mark. When it is below 50 the majority of home builders think that market conditions are poor rather than favorable.

• current sales conditions fell 11 points from 62 to 51
• expectations for the next 6 months sales fell 6 points from 60 to 54
• prospective buyer traffic fell 9 points from 40 to 31

The NAHB blamed the drop on poor weather conditions. However when we look at the changes by region we find:

• Northeast dropped 8 points from 41 to 33
• Midwest dropped 9 points from 59 to 50
• South dropped 7 points from 53 to 46
• West dropped 14 points from 71 to 57

Since the largest drop was in the West where the weather has been rather good (too dry in fact), we are not buying the poor weather argument.
The weakening trend in demand that is all too clear in Greater Phoenix is reflected in the lower buyer traffic reported by home builders at the national level.

Supplied from the Cromford Report.


#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman 

Phoenix Population Driving Sales?

It is going to be in the 80's again today - we slept with all the windows open last night.

Forbes projects the Phoenix population to increase slightly more than 4% this coming year.  However, that unlikely that any population increase is going to make the Phoenix market to change significantly.  The vast majority of people are migrating from another (usually colder) state, and a huge number of them are planning on renting.  That should be good news because investors should be buying properties to rent, but in fact, the rental properties are already out there.  There are currently 6200 active rentals on the MLS.  Because most do not use the MLS for rentals, it would be reasonable to suspect that there are probably over 12,000 homes for rent, and who knows how many apartments?

In addition, when moving from another state, unless you have a job secured in the new location, obtaining a mortgage is very difficult within the first 6 months after the move.  Since most leases require a 12 month commitment, it is very unlikely that home sales will be affected by the population change.

Just before you sign, Do a Walk-Thru!

It is every Buyer's nightmare - something happens to their dream home after the current owner moves out, and they move in. OMG!

Make sure that you are protected against any problems like this with a walk-thru of the home prior to signing any paperwork.  The Seller is obligated to keep the home in the same condition it was in the first time that you saw it, until the Buyer moves in.

Many things are possible with a home sitting idle.  Copper pipe can be stolen - hacksawed right off the wall.  Air Conditioner cores can be stolen or mangled.  People can break in and vandalize the home.  Vehicle accidents can occur, and the home can be damaged as a result.

Make sure that your home is in the proper condition before signing.  It only takes a short while to quickly go through things to make certain that all is secure, but it can have such an impact!

Remember, My Purpose in Life is to help you find the best home for YOU!

#Avondale Real Estate, #Goodyear Real Estate, #Buckeye Real Estate, #Glendale, Real Estate, #Phoenix Real Estate, #Surprise Real Estate, #Peoria Real Estate, #Tolleson Real Estate, #Laveen Real Estate, #Waddell Real Estate, #Wittman Real Estate

Median Price Starting Down in Phoenix Real Estate Market

My Orchid tree is blooming - this isn't supposed to happen for at least another 6 weeks or so!

From the Cromford Report:

February 16 - The monthly median sales price for all areas & types dropped below $180,000 today. At the same time the annual median sales price reached $180,000 from below. When the long term average moves higher than the short term average this is a distinctly negative signal for prices. The cooling in the market has now been around long enough (since July 2013) to cause some clear negative signals to start showing up in pricing measurements. We expect to see more of these over the next few months.

%1/2 down payment via FHA loan!

I just heard about a new FHA loan that only requires one half of a percent down.  This loan features: Total financing up to 99.5% of the sales price or appraised value, whichever is lower 30 year fixed rate FHA loan Down payment and closing costs assistance via low, fixed-rate second mortgage up to 3% of the sales price No first-time home buyer requirement Minimum credit score of 620 Home buyer education is required If this interests you at all, please let me know.  I have no idea how long this program may last.