Buy now with .5% program, or wait?

Her is a question that received this morning:

Hi Tim,

I recently got pre-approved through my credit union for 73k and change but the letter also said I would need close to 7k in the bank to cover closing costs.  I emailed them bank asking about the FHA program you mentioned in your newsletter.  Is there hope or should I just wait and save?  It will take a lot longer than I'd like to wait to save that kind of money.

And here is my reply:

Thanks for the question!  Here is the situation: Although Phoenix is supposed to be a "buyer's market" right now, that doesn't mean that the houses are becoming less expensive.  All that means is that there are more homes on the market to choose from at this time.  The statistics also show that the market is appreciating at over 15% per year.  That means that a $73,000 home today is potentially going to sell at $83,950 next year if the appreciation keeps up.  That means a down payment next year would be $383 more than today, and your payment would be about $55 per month higher.

Credit Unions are nice to use if you fit inside the box that they have to work within.  They are very conservative, and only offer one or two loans.

I would recommend that you talk to the gentleman below.  He is well versed in the .5% down program, and will be able to help you, I think.  Give him a call, and let me know what happens.  I will also give him your contact info so you two can get together as quickly as possible.


#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman

Phoenix Appreciation Still Over 15%

 Homeowners are still Happy, Home Buyers are beginning to be Sad...

Yes the stats say that it is a buyer's market.  However, despite the increase in listings and the drop in sales since November, the market doesn't show any indication that prices are softening.  Actually, the values in the Phoenix area continue to rise, with over 15% appreciation.

Appreciation is measured as the percentage of increase (or decrease) in price over the past 12 months.  The best way to understand appreciation is to use $100,000 as a baseline.  If appreciation is currently 15%, then if you bought a $100,000 house 12 months ago, it would be worth $115,000!

As you can see from the graph, appreciation has topped 40% during periods of the past two years. 

Don't let the graph fool you - as long as the number is more than 0, houses are gaining in value!

#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman

Realtor to Realtor Business Etiquette

A long time ago, way before texting became a valid method of business communications, there was an idea called "The Golden Rule".  The essence of The Rule was that everyone should treat others the same way they would like to be treated in turn.  It seems that everyone who is asked about it agrees that The Rule is a good idea, but it seems to be falling out of practice.

Realtors are fond of saying that our profession is a 24/7, go-get-em, no holds barred type of life.  However, it seems that the real estate practices that are thriving put a limit on hours worked, include quality time with spouse and family, and strive to provide a quality of life as well as a quantity of sales.  Do you know anyone who would gladly take business calls regarding a property at 2:00 in the morning?

So, I ask you, why would a buyer's Realtor believe that repeatedly calling a seller's Realtor well after any any "normal" working hours to ask a question that could easily wait until morning be OK?  Using The Rule, would it be OK to call the buyer's Realtor at 4:00 am to add a little more explanation be OK?

People, we often gladly stretch the notion of a "working day" to accommodate our client's requirements.  Let's keep our peer-to-peer interactions to a reasonable working day!


#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman

Jumping for Joy - Phoenix Leads Nation - Positively This Time

No amount of bad news can dim the facts that show #Phoenix is once again leading the nation - this time in a positive fashion.  Notices of Trustee's Sale - the leading indicators of #foreclosure in Arizona - are down to levels not seen since August of 2006.  The Notice of Trustees Sale is the first document filed by a lender when they intend to foreclose.  The property is then auctioned off after a 90 day waiting period, during which the owner of the property can remedy the situation if they choose.  This puts us back to a "normal" foreclosure rate of about 1000 foreclosures/month.


#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman 

Why Prices Won't Drop in Phoenix

Prices in Phoenix are not going to drop!  There, I said it.  Now, here's why.

This is so simple, I can't believe that nobody else is mentioning it.

Consider the past 7 years of the Phoenix market - 5 years had prices going down, and the past two years have seen a resurgence in prices, but they have not yet come back anywhere near where they were.  People are looking at the last two years and saying with "wisdom", that the prices went too high too fast, and we are looking at a "bubble" that may burst.

Not So!

The market now is *so* different than two years ago - It is totally "upside down" in that now 85% of the homes on the market are resales, not foreclosures.  There are hardly any short sales.

The people who are selling are people who have wanted to sell for a long time, but couldn't due to the mortgage they held.  The people selling now are happy to break even, or maybe take a few dollars out of a sale, but no so much that they can buy a new home with 20% down.  Their motivation is a "better" neighborhood, being closer to a job, #up-sizing or #down-sizing, but - and huge emphasis here - not to make a killing on selling their home!

These people cannot afford to market their homes for any less.  If they market for less, then they will not be able to make the move to where they want to be.  There is no "give" in their pricing.

They cannot change their prices.  Therefore, the prices in Phoenix will remain stable, and appreciation will continue, although slower than past years.


#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman 

US Home Builder Confidence Down

US home builder confidence has suffered its largest ever monthly drop between January and February 2014. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index plunged from 56 to 46. This is the first reading since May 2013 that has dropped below the crucial 50 mark. When it is below 50 the majority of home builders think that market conditions are poor rather than favorable.

• current sales conditions fell 11 points from 62 to 51
• expectations for the next 6 months sales fell 6 points from 60 to 54
• prospective buyer traffic fell 9 points from 40 to 31

The NAHB blamed the drop on poor weather conditions. However when we look at the changes by region we find:

• Northeast dropped 8 points from 41 to 33
• Midwest dropped 9 points from 59 to 50
• South dropped 7 points from 53 to 46
• West dropped 14 points from 71 to 57

Since the largest drop was in the West where the weather has been rather good (too dry in fact), we are not buying the poor weather argument.
The weakening trend in demand that is all too clear in Greater Phoenix is reflected in the lower buyer traffic reported by home builders at the national level.

Supplied from the Cromford Report.


#Avondale , #Goodyear , #Buckeye , #Glendale,  #Phoenix , #Surprise , #Peoria , #Tolleson, #Laveen , #Waddell , #Wittman 

Phoenix Population Driving Sales?

It is going to be in the 80's again today - we slept with all the windows open last night.

Forbes projects the Phoenix population to increase slightly more than 4% this coming year.  However, that unlikely that any population increase is going to make the Phoenix market to change significantly.  The vast majority of people are migrating from another (usually colder) state, and a huge number of them are planning on renting.  That should be good news because investors should be buying properties to rent, but in fact, the rental properties are already out there.  There are currently 6200 active rentals on the MLS.  Because most do not use the MLS for rentals, it would be reasonable to suspect that there are probably over 12,000 homes for rent, and who knows how many apartments?

In addition, when moving from another state, unless you have a job secured in the new location, obtaining a mortgage is very difficult within the first 6 months after the move.  Since most leases require a 12 month commitment, it is very unlikely that home sales will be affected by the population change.