Weakest Phoenix Real Estate Start since 2008

From the Cromford Report:

Well I hate to say it, but so far 2014 is not shaping up too well for the Greater Phoenix housing market, at least from a seller's perspective. Rather than rebounding from the disappointing second half of 2013, we are mostly seeing signs of weaker than normal demand and growing supply. As yet this has had a very modest impact on the Cromford® Market Index. However, knowing how that formula works makes me think that it is probably headed lower in the short term. The major contributions to the index are:

1. Active listings (including UCB) - 27,700 today - up 9.4% since January 1
2. Pending listings - 5,407 today - up 15.9% since January 1
3. Monthly sales - 4,696 today - down 21.3% since January 1

Pending listings were up 14.6% last year, but this represented a growth of 1,169 listings, whereas this year's 15.9% represents only 740, because pending listings had sunk so low by the end of 2013.
Active listings grew only 5.8% between Jan 1 and Jan 20 last year, and on a much lower base. Inventory is building much faster than in 2013, and the starting point was 21% higher this year.
The monthly sales rate dropped only 7.7% between Jan 1 and Jan 20 last year, much less than in 2014.
All told, this is the weakest start to a year since 2008.
Having said that, the house buying season doesn't really get up to full speed until the Super Bowl is over.

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