Phoenix Sales Rate Gradually Declining

 From the Cromford Report:  For Greater Phoenix as a whole, the annual sales rate has been in decline since November 2011. The rate for June 2014 is similar to June 2003. However the population of Maricopa County has grown by 22% since then while the population of Pinal County has almost doubled. If we select Maricopa County only, we see an annual sales count of 69,468, similar to May 2003. Pinal's annual sales are at 7,066, which is close to the pre-crash peak in December 2005. Pinal's all time high was back in April 2010at 11,106, when more than half the sales were lender owned or HUD sales.

If we look only at normal non-distressed sales, the Pinal County has been declining since February 2014 while Maricopa has been flat since December 2013. Much of the missing growth is in the price ranges below $200,000. Above that figure the annual sales rate for non-distressed homes is still growing, albeit at a modest rate. However below $200,000 the sales rate has been declining since October 2013.


This chart - normal sales below $200,000 for all of Greater Phoenix - appears to have a predictive quality. It was rising quickly from Jan 2001 to Feb 2005 then collapsed. It recovered starting in 2009 and then hesitated between mid 2010 and mid 2011, only to grow strongly until October 2013 when it started to decline gently. If you had been using it as a market signal between 2001 and 2014 it would have served you very well. This is no guarantee that it will do so in future, but personally I am watching closely to see the direction this chart takes over the next 12 months.